Camberwell votes 2: what can we hope for?

(this is the second half of my previous post that I decided to split as it was too long)
So Lambeth and Southwark elections 2010 what can we hope for?
The full lists of candidates standing are available on the Southwark website and Lambeth website . A feature of the election this time is a new party — the Camberwell Party which has emerged to campaign on local issues and has posted on this site. This has, I think, been positive because even if it doesnt win any of the Camberwell seats it has raised the issues facing the area.

The 2010 elections are in London particularly unpredictable as for the first time since the modern structure of London was established in 1965 the local borough council elections are occurring on the same day as the General Election and so the turnout will be greater — in Lambeth and Southwark turnout for local elections is normally around the 30% mark whereas for the General Elections its usually around the 50–60% mark. Assuming people vote the same way nationally as locally it is likely that Labour will win more votes in Southwark and Lambeth as the constituencies are all fairly safe Labour seats.

The best result for Camberwell would be, I believe, a majority Labour administration in Southwark. I think realistically Camberwell is still going to elect Labour/ Green Councillors but if the Camberwell Party can reduce the majorities and make the politicians take more notice of Camberwell that will only be a good thing. Camberwell will also be in a strong position as the leader of the Labour Group is a South Camberwell Councillor. Lambeth I think is unlikely to change control — Labour could lose one or two seats to the Lib Dems but is still likely to be in charge on 7 May.

So in short my prediction for the borough council elections: Labour gain Southwark with workable majority of seats, Labour keep Lambeth.

As (I hope we all are) campaigners for a better Camberwell we need to be asking questions of the candidates and most of all planning now so that we can hit the ground running with an agenda for Camberwell once the election is over. I hope that organisations such as the Camberwell Party and SE5 Forum are able to get well argued campaigning material onto the desks of the new Councillors within the first few weeks of the new administration when the programme for the next few years is worked out. We need to show our elected Councillors and especially the new administrations on Southwark and Lambeth that Camberwell matters!

Camberwell votes 2: the local elections

And so following my previous post we turn to the elections that will arguably have a greater impact on day to day life in Camberwell over the next four years: the elections to Southwark and Lambeth borough councils. Although life in Britain is much more centralised than many places across Europe the local borough council still does have considerable power over things like development, licensing, regeneration and lots of other things that can have an impact on our community.

The current situation
Southwark

Let us just remind ourselves of the position at the last elections in 2006: in Southwark Labour won 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats 28, the Conservatives 6 and the Greens 1. The Lib Dems, not having an overall majority formed a coalition administration with the Conservatives to rule Southwark continuing the arrangement first established in 2002. Looking at the map on the Southwark website Camberwell falls in four Southwark wards — Camberwell Green, South Camberwell, Brunswick Park and Faraday. All of these wards returned three Labour Councillors apart from South Camberwell which returned two Labour Councillors and one Green Councillor.

The fact that none of these Councillors were in the ruling Lib Dem/ Con group has I believe (and it is my personal opinion) not been to Camberwell’s advantage over the past eight years as it seems other parts of the borough have received greater council investment/ attention.

Lambeth
The elections in Lambeth in 2006 resulted in a Labour administration taking over from a Lib Dem/Con coalition — Labour won 39 seats, the Liberal Democrats 17, the Conservatives 6 and the Greens 1. Since then Labour have lost one seat to the Lib Dems in a byelection. The map of Lambeth shows that three wards — Coldharbour, Herne Hill and Vassall contains parts of Camberwell and at the last election all elected three Labour Councillors  apart from Herne Hill where one Green Councillor was elected, the Lib Dems won a seat at a byelection in 2008 in Vassall Ward.

The administration in Lambeth does not really  recognise that parts of Camberwell fall in the borough even though Camberwell’s biggest employer (Kings College Hospital) is in Lambeth. This has not wholly been to Camberwell’s disadvantage as we are considered to be ‘North Brixton’ or ‘East Brixton’ and have therefore received spending on investment and regeneration aimed at that part of the borough.  I think the area around Coldharbour Lane,  Loughborough Junction, Myatts Fields and Ruskin Park is now looking better than it did four years ago and has obviously received investment.

Camberwell votes 1: the General Election

General election 2010 in Camberwell

A subject that has been bubbling under the surface on this blog is the matter of what our elected representatives are doing for the area. We live in a democracy (imperfect yes but a democracy) and so we are responsible for electing our representatives every four or five years.

This year on 6 May 2010 we will have a chance to vote twice – first for our Member of Parliament and then for our local borough Council. I intend to cover the local elections in a post later this week but today will look at the General Election.

The electoral situation in Camberwell like so many things is complicated – if we take Camberwell to be the SE5 postcode area rather than purely Camberwell town centre then we are covered by three constituencies: Camberwell and Peckham (the main part of Camberwell town centre), a part of Dulwich and West Norwood (the area either side of and South of Coldharbour Lane and around Ruskin Park towards Herne Hill) and a part of Vauxhall (South of Camberwell New Road until the border with Southwark on Flodden Road – includes roads such as Paulet Road and the area around Myatts Fields Park).

All three of these constituencies are represented by Labour MPs all of whom had fairly safe majorities at the 2005 election. The Electoral Commission  has redrawn the boundaries slightly since the last General Election but not generally enough to shift the balance of power significantly.

The demographic profile of the area (or certainly Camberwell and Peckham, Vauxhall and the Camberwell part of Dulwich and West Norwood) is that of poor inner city (over 50% of people living in council/housing association housing, consequent low rates of home ownership, very low rates of car ownership, high levels of poverty etc etc) with pockets of wealth so you would expect Labour to be dominant.

The results at the last election show that in Vauxhall and Camberwell and Peckham Labour took over 50% of the vote (and in Camberwell and Peckham Harriet Harman received over 65% of all votes cast) and so it would be virtually impossible for Labour to lose in either of these constituencies. (Stranger things have happened but only where there has been a scandal/other event which has distorted the picture.) Dulwich and West  Norwood is more marginal – here Tessa Jowell at the last election gained 45% of the vote with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats gaining just over 20% of the votes each.

My personal feeling is that the situation is unlikely to change significantly in any of the constituencies as the Labour vote may diminish slightly but is likely to to remain generally firm. Any increase in the Conservative vote is likely to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrat vote (just look at the results of the London Mayor election in 2008 when the Lib Dems were squeezed in the main Boris/Ken race). Of course the whole matter could be distorted by low turnout but assuming levels of turnout similar to the 2005 election I dont expect any of our MPs to change. 

So who are the candidates locally?
The UK Polling report website or the Guardian website   are good (generally unbiased) sources of information and no doubt you will receive leaflets and other literature over the next few weeks telling you who to vote for. Here I identify the current MP and the main players (especially those who have Camberwell connections)

Camberwell and Peckham constituency (see Guardian profile)
Harriet Harman (Labour) – incumbent MP since 1982, Leader of the Commons and deputy leader of the Labour Party. Website
Columba Blango (Lib Dem) – Southwark Councillor (Rotherhithe), former Olympic athlete. Website
Jenny Jones (Green) – Southwark Councillor (South Camberwell), Londonwide Member of the London Assembly (elected on the party list). Website 
Andy Stranack (Conservative) – Community worker, lives in Peckham. Website   

Vauxhall constituency (Guardian profile)
Kate Hoey (Labour) – incumbent MP since 1989, known for ‘independent’ stance on many issues. Website 
Glyn Chambers (Conservative) – lives in Vauxhall. Website
Joseph Healy (Green) – Has been involved in Southwark campaigns. Website
Caroline Pidgeon (Lib Dem) – Londonwide Member of the London Assembly (elected on the party list) and Southwark Councillor (Newington), lives in Camberwell. Website

Dulwich and West Norwood constituency (Guardian profile)
Tessa Jowell (Labour) – incumbent MP since 1992, Olympics Minister. Website
Kemi Adegoke (Conservative) – lives in Herne Hill, Systems Analyst for RBS. Website 
Shane Collins (Green) – lives in Lambeth. Website
Jonathan Mitchell (Lib Dem) – lives in Dulwich, Southwark Councillor (East Dulwich), stood last time. Website 

(These are the Camberwell connections/ information/ website I could find — if you know of anything else please add)

So will you vote? What will these candidates do for Cambwerwell?

Register to vote now

Register to vote for the 2010 general and local elections

Are you registered to vote in the local and national elections due on Thursday 6 May 2010?

You have until 20 April to register to vote in the May 2010 elections — to do so go to the Lambeth Council website or Southwark Council website — download the registration form and return it to the council so that it arrives by 20 April 2010 to be eligible to vote on 6 May. If you are going to be away on that day you can also apply for a postal or proxy vote at the same place — again forms need to be returned by 20 April.